Blog: Third Quarter San Diego Market Update

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Third Quarter San Diego Market Update

San Diego County

Five Year Market Trends

Third Quarter 2011

The average sale price of homes in San Diego County declined the second quarter of 2011 by -1.5% compared to the second quarter of 2010. Relative to the first quarter of this year, the prices for single family homes are up +1.2% whereas attached homes are up +6.3%. For more complete data on the market trends go to www.TheJoysOfRealEstate.com and look under “Market Trends”.

The year to year seasonal trend in home sales in San Diego County can be observed in the chart to the right. Home sales are down compared to the second quarter of last year by -5% for single family homes and -13% for attached homes. For this year second quarter sales are up approximately 30% compared to the first quarter which is a normal seasonal trend.

Distressed sales in the second quarter were reduced to 47%, with 24% short sales and 23% foreclosures, compared to 54% in the first quarter which is a good sign. However, these distressed sales are at about the same level as they were a year ago and we are all wondering when they will go away. It looks like it will be sometime before they decline. A look at the home pricing forecast in the next chart might give us a hint.

The US Housing Price Forecast by a group of 108 diverse experts in real estate is shown on the chart to the right. It indicates a -3.52% decline this year followed by positive increases the next 4 years. It looks like the end of the second dip in home prices is this year or early next year where we should reach the bottom. With the home prices at or near the bottom and interest rates still less than 5% indicates this is the greatest buying opportunity in many years.

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